I first read the book Future Shock way BACK in 1977 or 1978, just after finishing SCHOOL. Future Shock was written by the famed futurist Alvin Toffler, in which he defined the term ‘future shock’ as a ‘certain psychological state of individuals and entire societies’. The shortest definition for the term in the book is a personal perception of ‘too much change in too short a period of time’. The book, which became an international bestseller, actually grew out of an article “The Future as a Way of Life” in Horizon magazine, Summer 1965 issue. The book sold over 6 million copies in the ’70s and ’80s and was considered a must-read tome for all budding intellectuals, four decades ago.

While some of what Toffler wrote back then may not be as relevant today, but the title of his book and its premise based on too much change in too short a period of time is more than valid and relevant in current times.

The travel & tourism business especially is on its knees worldwide. Country borders are sealed. Cities are at stand-still. Flights are grounded. Cruise ships are docked in harbours. Trains are stationary. Buses are not plying. Hotels are shut. Restaurants are shuttered. No one knows when the fury of the VIRUS will abate; no vaccine is in sight; people are cloistered in their homes. Social distancing is the new mantra. Masks and gloves are the new safety accoutrements. And no one is even thinking of a holiday, let alone planning for one.

India attracted 10.5 million foreign visitors last year; 5 million NRIs travelled back home to be with family and friends; 1.8 billion Indians travelled within the country for holidays, pleasure and leisure; 26 million Indians travelled overseas for tourism. All of these statistics seem like a far cry today. On current indications, the lockdowns & curfews may drag on till the end of this year in varying intensities and impositions. No one really knows, or can accurately predict how all this is going to pan out, going forward. Even if offices and restaurants re-open soon, it will take longer for malls, gyms, theatres and other HIGH density locations to go back on-stream. The pick-up of the travel & tourism industry is the farthest in that chain as it is inextricably linked to the return of normalcy, that too soonest.

India has an estimated 53,000 travel agents, 115,000 tour operators, 15,000 adventure companies, 911,000 tourist transporters, 53,000 hospitality companies and five lakh restaurants … the industry employs an estimated 3.8 crore people. And these statistics do not include numbers for aviation and starred hotels which are not in the medium & small enterprises count.

Actually, fear is the key. Fear of the unknown. Fear of the infection. Fear of touching someone. Fear of being touched. Fear of being infected, and infecting family and friends. Fear of being infected, and being far away from good healthcare. Fear of bringing back the virus from travels overseas. Fear. More fear. And yet more fear. Actually, suspicion and fear. And that suspicion, and that fear will take dollops of good news, on multiple fronts, over a PROLONGED period of time to abate, and be totally dispelled. Till then travel & tourism are literally in the doghouse.

Let us look at 25 possible trends in the near future, each important in its own way