Saved Bookmarks
| 1. |
Often it is taken that a truthful person commands, more respect in the society. A man is known to speak the truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that it is actually a six. Find the probability that it is actually a six. Do you also agree that the value of truthfulness leads to more respect in the society? |
|
Answer» Let E1, E2 and E be three events such that E1 = six occurs E2 = six does not occurs E = man reports that six occurs in the throwing of the dice. Now P(E1) = 1/6, P(E2) = 5/6 P(E/E1) = 4/5, P(E/E2) = 1 - 4/5 = 1/5 By using Baye’s theorem, we obtain P(E1/E) = (P(E1)P(E/E1))/(P(E1)P(E/E1) + P(E2)P(E/E2)) = (1/6 x 4/5)/(1/6 x 4/5 + 5/6 x 1/5) = 4/(4 + 5) = 4/9 |
|