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3 individuals john wright, greg chappell and gary kristen are in the race for the appointment of new coach of team india. the probabilities of their appointment are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 respectively. if john wright is appointed then probability of ganguly appointed as a captain will be 0.7 and corresponding probability if greg chappell or gary kristen is appointed are 0.6 and 0.5 respectively. find the overall probability that ganguly will appointed as a captain.

Answer»

We use PROBABILITY TREES in this CASE.

Probability that JOHN will be APPOINTED and ganguly appointed is :

0.5 and 0.7

This is : 0.5 × 0.7 = 0.35

The probability that Greg will be appointed and Ganguly be appointed is :

0.3 and 0.6

This is: 0.3 × 0.6 = 0.18

The probability that Gary will be appointed and Ganguly be appointed is :

0.2 and 0.5

This is : 0.2 × 0.5 = 0.1

The probability of Ganguly appointed is :

0.35 or 0.18 or 0.1

This is :

0.35 + 0.18 + 0.1 = 0.63


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